England v India head-to-head: Who will win titanic series and why - England's secret weapon, the big question India must answer and the young superstar Ben Stokes' side should fear

England and India lock horns again this week in what is becoming one of the biggest series in cricket, with a newly named Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy on the line over five back-to-back Tests.

Despite their dominance in the red-ball game, India have not won here since 2007 and were denied at the last in 2022 when the delayed fifth Test ran into a Bazball whirlwind and the series was drawn 2-2. 

This year's battle begins at Headingley on Friday, before moving on to Edgbaston, Lord's, Old Trafford and the Oval. England come in on the back of winning all seven matches across all formats this summer, while India are still wearing the bruises of a 3-1 defeat in Australia last winter - not to mention the gaping hole left by the retirements of Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma. 

ECB chief executive Richard Gould said today that hosting India and their more than a billion sets of eyeballs is now just as commercially important as a home Ashes, and the stands will definitely be packed throughout the six-week series.

Both teams are thrilling but flawed - so who will come out on top? 

Here, Wisden editor LAWRENCE BOOTH examines the strengths and weaknesses of each side - and predicts the winner of this mouth-watering contest.

England strengths

England’s home record remains formidable, as it should: their conditions, and the ball they use, are unique.

Since South Africa triumphed in 2008, only three visiting sides have won a Test series here, and two of those (Sri Lanka in 2014 and New Zealand in 2021) did so across two-match series. The last team to win over more than four Tests was in 2001 – Australia’s most recent victory in this country.

Besides the obvious boon of a run-hungry Joe Root – who averages 58 against India, with 10 hundreds – England boast the in-form Ben Duckett, irritant to Indian fans because of his Bazball pronouncements but one of the best all-format openers in the world. Then there are Harry Brook and Jamie Smith, each capable of winning a game in a session, especially against seam.

There is understandable concern over the bowling, but Ben Stokes looked well suited to his new short bursts approach during the innings win against Zimbabwe last month, and attack leader Chris Woakes takes his home Test wickets at a cost of 21, comfortably lower than Jimmy Anderson or Stuart Broad.

If Brydon Carse, having decided not to amputate one of his toes, reproduces the form that brought him 27 wickets at 19 in Pakistan and New Zealand, then England can make good the temporary absence of the injured Gus Atkinson. And, in theory at least, Jofra Archer is still to come.

India strengths

Jasprit Bumrah. He’s not their only strength, of course. But, well, he’s No 1 and daylight’s second.

Until he came along, no bowler in Test history had taken 200 wickets at under 20. It’s also possible no bowler has previously let go of the ball so close to the batsman: thanks to Bumrah’s unusual action and hyperextension, it’s as if the pitch has shrunk from 22 yards to 18.

Without his 32 wickets at 13 each during the Border–Gavaskar Trophy over the winter, India might have lost 5–0 to Australia, rather than merely 3–1.

It’s a pity, then, for the fans, if not for England’s batsmen, that Bumrah is expected to play only three of the Tests, after suffering a back injury at Sydney in January. That could rise to four if the series is on the line, but India want to protect their prize asset. 

And the absence of Mohammed Shami, who has a problematic right knee, is a further blow. But Mohammed Siraj has energy, aggression and experience: he took eight wickets in India’s memorable win at Lord’s in 2021, and a four-for the following summer at Edgbaston.

The batting could go either way but, if Yashasvi Jaiswal comes off in his first series in England, then we will be in for fireworks.

He took them for two double hundreds during India’s 4–1 win at home early last year, and began the tour of Australia with a superb 161 at Perth that lasted nearly seven and a half hours and dealt with the suspicion he might be a home-track bully.

Rishabh Pant, too, has the capacity to take England apart. His 17 Test innings here have yielded plenty of failures, but also 114 in the fourth innings at the Oval seven years ago, plus an innings of 146 off 111 balls at Edgbaston in 2022, when he somehow ended up on the losing side.

England weaknesses

Their hundreds against Zimbabwe at Trent Bridge obscured the issue but, when your top three includes Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope, there can be no raised eyebrows if Root regularly walks out at 20 for two.

For Crawley, a winter of failure in New Zealand was of no consequence: if he comes off twice in 10 innings, so the logic goes, he will do so spectacularly, and could win a game by himself.

For Pope, the matter has been complicated by the rise of Jacob Bethell. The vice-captain will have to improve on his average against India of 24 if the selectors are to avoid looking silly.

The other major concern is Shoaib Bashir. Like Crawley and Pope, he dipped his bread against Zimbabwe. Like Crawley and Pope, the relevance of that success is debatable.

England maintain he is on the right trajectory, but that sounds like the bare minimum ahead of 10 Tests against India and Australia. And there is always the option of picking Bethell ahead of him if Headingley looks seam-friendly.

India will also tell themselves that a seam attack in which Jamie Overton is vying with Josh Tongue for the final spot, and no longer includes Broad or Anderson, is not to be feared. Luckily for the tourists, Ollie Robinson has also fallen by the wayside, though for other reasons.

Indian weaknesses

No team with India’s depth of talent should really have room for top-order batsmen who average 35 (Shubman Gill, the new captain) or 33 (KL Rahul).

Ideally, they wouldn’t be recalling a 33-year-old who last played Test cricket eight years ago (Karun Nair, though at least his CV includes a triple-hundred against England), or considering a debut for a 23-year-old whose greatest hits have come in the white-ball formats (Sai Sudharsan).

But India’s traditional deference to star names meant Kohli, and to a lesser extent Sharma, were allowed to extend their Test careers beyond their sell-by dates, and slowed the progress of their potential replacements. The batting lineup now has an element of hope as much as expectation.

The retirement of Ravichandran Ashwin has placed a greater onus of Ravindra Jadeja, which may shine light on a further problem: Jadeja’s accurate left-arm darts have brought him only 27 wickets in 12 Tests in this country at 43 each. Who, then, will bowl England out, especially in the game(s) Bumrah misses?

Prediction

Because Bumrah can’t do it all by himself, England’s home advantage should be the decisive factor.

England to win 3-1. 

The Jay Shah Show 

South Africa’s victory in the World Test Championship final against Australia at Lord’s last week – their ninth win out of 10 under the leadership of Temba Bavuma – was the result the format needed.

It even took the South Africans above England in the Test rankings, a better barometer of a team’s standing than the deeply flawed WTC.

And yet. After the game, the ICC put out a 45-second video on X, in celebration of a ‘fantastic #WTC25 final’. The video consisted of 23 brief shots, of which 11 featured ICC chair Jay Shah – Jay clapping, Jay hugging, Jay shaking hands.

At one point, we were even treated to the back of Jay’s head, a special moment for all his fans. There were a few South African cricketers in there too.

Someone, somewhere, thought it was sensible to sign off on this. We can’t for the life of us imagine who that person might have been.

When a Super Over is not so super 

In Glasgow yesterday, in a T20 tri-series also involving Scotland, the Netherlands and Nepal each made 152.

So they went to a super over, in which Nepal made 19 for one, and the Netherlands (thanks to 10 off the last two balls) 19 for none. So there was another super over: the Netherlands 17 for one, Nepal (thanks to a last-ball six) 17 for none.

Finally, in the third super over, the Dutch – needing only one run after Nepal managed none for two – prevailed. What’s wrong with a good old-fashioned tie?

Syd's rightful honour 

Honours can be dubious things, but they can also be just right. David ‘Syd’ Lawrence, the former England and Gloucestershire fast bowler now stricken by motor neurone disease, was made an MBE last week, and no one can argue otherwise.

His remarkable story is brilliantly told in his new book, In Syd’s Voice, written with the help of Dean Wilson.